Samath Bank’s adequate capital buffer may enable it to sail through the tough times and help in boosting the credit growth in the near term when the economic activity recovers to a greater extent, First Capital Research said yesterday, September 22.
Elaborating on Sampath Bank’s capital buffer in a report titled, ‘Robust show despite nagging macro pressures’, First Capital said, “Sampath Bank’s earnings increased by 83% YoY in the 2Q2021 to LKR 2.4bn while the surge was attributed to the rise in total operating income by 38.4% to LKR 14.7 bn despite the increase in impairment by 50.1%YoY to LKR 4.3 bn”.
First Capital also stated:
“Total operating income was led by the improvement in NII, Net Fee and Commission and Net Other Operating Income. Considering the strong performance in 1Q and 2Q of 2021, we maintain the earnings forecast of Sampath for 2021 at LKR 13.7bn (+62%YoY) and 2022 at LKR 16.5bn (21%YoY). With the strong capital buffer, we expect Sampath’s lending portfolio to grow with the gradual resumption of economic activities while margins to enhance amidst the potential rise in interest rates.
However, taking into consideration the higher risk-free rate applicable for valuations, with the potential rise in interest rates, we have downgraded Sampath’s fair value for 2021 to LKR 62.0 (from previous LKR 68.0) and 2022 to LKR 73.0 (from previous LKR 80.0).
Sampath’s’s net interest income for 2Q2021 was LKR 10.9bn reflecting an increase of 34.1%YoY, led by the decrease recorded in interest expenses as a result of timely re-pricing of liability products despite a decline in interest income by 0.5%YoY owing to low interest rate regime. Net fee and commission income comprises of income from various sources such as credit cards, trade, and electronic channels while the growth in this segment was driven mainly by higher engagements in card-related activities.
Net other operating income grew by 173.8%YoY backed by the increase in realized exchange income stemming from the 1.1% depreciation of the LKR against the USD reported during 2Q2021. We estimate NII and Net fee and commission income to grow by 12%YoY and 10%YoY to LKR 41.3bn and to LKR 9.9bn for 2021 respectively.
Impairment rose by 50.1%YoY for 2Q2021 as a result of prudent provisioning for risk categories. Credit granted for 1H2021 amounted to LKR 30.0bn with 4.1%YTD growth mainly driven by term loans, pawning & gold loans and overdrafts although loan book growth was relatively lesser compared to the private sector credit (which grew by nearly 6.7% during 1H2021) as a result of Sampath’s conservative nature in lending. Sampath provided LKR 4.3Bn in 2Q2021 as the impairment, up by 50%YoY, relative to 2Q2020 on the back of additional provisions taken despite signs of an economic recovery apparent in 1Q202.
Following a reassessment of the impairment assumptions, SAMP decided to apply a more prudent approach in 2Q2021, in light of the evolving impact of COVID 19 third wave and the extension of the moratorium framework. Accordingly, we have estimated an impairment of LKR 11.6bn (-12%YoY) for 2021 and LKR 10.0Bn (14%YoY) for 2022.”
Well above capital ratios will boost lending portfolio when the economic activities improve
As at 30th June 2021, SAMP’s Tier I and Total Capital Adequacy Ratios stand at 12.5% and 15.7% respectively which are well above the minimum regulatory requirement of 8.0% and 12.0%.”
